Monthly Archives: July 2017

PnF July 16,2017

Point and Figure Update

The price continued its fall last night. The ONLY significant target price right now is $1699.99; the price point that will end this bull cycle. Two days ago we were 41 boxes away. Yesterday we were 30 boxes away. This morning, that price is three boxes away. In terms collapse this is not the worst we’ve seen. The last two HUGE collapses (1 in May and the other in June) were 45 boxes down. We are only 33 boxes down this morning. So, we might have some more to go.

Here are the prices today:

We bottomed out this morning at $1,758. We are bouncing up a little from there.

The price would reverse with a price over $1,800 AFTER 8 PM EDT tonight.
The formation remains 5 columns wide.
We’ve blown away all lower targets.
The Low Pole Warning (below the last column of Os by 4 boxes beyond the breakdown.) is screaming at us. A dead cat isn’t bouncing much these days.

My prediction?

I think we probably change trends today. My guess is that before July 21st and August first we will see some kind of recovery. The day we see a solution take place on the scaling, we see a couple hundred dollar rise.

Until then Clubber Lang’s prediction in Rocky 3 stands: “I predict pain….”

Have a nice Sunday.

[The Daily PnF Chart](http://imgur.com/a/Aafbp)

PnF Update for 7/14

The price broke down this morning. This breakdown happened when the price fell below $2,260. This is a triple bottom breakdown. This breakdown is demonstrable one of the most negative in these kinds of charts.

You can see on the chart where I drew in the triangle that has been forming over weeks. We broke the bottom border of that triangle this morning.

When predicting price movements on PnF charts there are two primary ways to count the movement. The first is to count the width of the formation. This number is extended beyond the breakdown. This formation is 5 columns wide. So you count down 5 boxes from the breakdown. The first target is therefore, the $2,140 box.

The second way to predict is to overlay the last breakdown over this breakdown. The last breakdown that occurred was 15 boxes long. Overlaying a 15 box drop on this chart, and the price target is in the $2,100 box.

As I’ve been writing over the past few days you can see the price dropping like a zip line along the top border of our triangle.

The trend line is still pretty far away at $1,700. I doubt we will get that low on THIS trip downward. I DO think we could see it in the days before August 1st. There are a lot of stories out there suggesting you sell going into August 1st. As a long term holder, I do not have an opinion one way or the other. I DO think it is always a good idea to get the BTC out of the exchanges and into a private wallet.

That’s it for today. We are probably in a two week period of great shorting.

 

Updated PnF Chart for 7/14

Point and Figure Update for 7/12

Point and Figure Update

We seem to be entering another phase of consolidation, albeit at a lower level than the previous week’s prices.

If you look at the chart for a longer time frame (going back to May) you will see our double bottom is settling right at the levels seen at the end of May. At that time we had a nine column wide formation that bumped up against $2,300. That resistance has now become support.

If we break that support the next support comes at the trend line which is currently at $1,640. That level is 31 boxes down the price chart. That would be a helluva drop, and I am not expecting that much volatility.

Based on the articles I am reading about August first I expect some movement as people move their bitcoin into Alts or fiat. Most of the stories I’ve read over the past couple of days are pretty alarmist and they paint a very dire picture. I am confident it won’t be as bad as they write.

But—I think it will have a suppressing affect on the price. Two weeks is not that long to wait.

Here are the numbers:

Unless the price rises over 2420 today, we’ve reversed into another column of Os. The lows of last night matched the lows of yesterday, creating a tentative double bottom on the chart.

If the price remains under $2,420 the tentative column of Os becomes official—and the reversal price is at $2,320. This means that we are already over the price point to reverse again to a column of Xs. That is the sign of a consolidating market. People are trading the chop, and that is fine.

The positive breakout would occur at prices up in the $2500’s. If we reverse tomorrow the break out happens at $2,420.

The breakdown would happen if the price drops below $2,260.

The formation is 3 columns wide.

A new metric I am including is the distance between the formation and the trend. As we consolidate that distance is going to shrink. It is not a concern right now, but it is a number we should keep an eye on. We certainly do not want to run into the trend during a consolidation—that would look more like a long term top and it would bode well for the next several months. Once again, we are not there yet.

 

Point and Figure Chart for July 9

Point and Figure Update

The Daily Chart

We reversed into a column of Xs. This is narrowing the trading range again as we move towards a convergence of the support and resistance lines. At this stage the point to keep an eye on is $2,600. If the price fails to break through the first line of resistance a drop down into mid $2,450-40 range is possible.

As you can see on the chart the first and second lines of resistance (moving upwards from the bottom left to the upper right) are pretty close together. This is forming a pretty solid support line.

Resistance is further apart (the “+” signs coming down from the top left to the bottom right) show weaker resistance after we break upwards.

The other thing to note is that the formation is once again 8 columns wide. This can be seen by the shaded horizontal row (with the number eight listed on the left end.) The largest formation this year has been 12 columns, with only a few others larger than eight. This shows a strong consolidation. Think of it as the string being wound down. When it is let go, it should spring up (or down) with some conviction. Since the support is tight, I am guess that we will probably show a spring upwards. This is supported by the fact that we remain in a solid upwards trend from the low $1,600s.

So, here are the numbers:

Current price is about $2,550.
We reverse with any price under $2,520 TOMORROW since we have already climbed into a new box today.

A positive breakout would occur with any price over $2,640.

A negative breakdown happens with a price under $2,460. (Try typing those two sentences without looking very carefully at the numbers.

I am optimistic about the situation. I am not 100% sure what the next three weeks will hold for us. No matter what, the trend is positive and the pressure is building. There seems to be a trading range of about $200. Keep that in mind as you think about trading.

The Alt Crapfest continues. I think we should invent RedditCoin and all become millionaires by next week.